Educated Guesses as to why Jon Huntsman’s Campaign isn’t Going Anywhere
I’ve never much understood the thinking process of partisan primary voters, so I’ll take a pass at trying to guess as to why his campaign isn’t going anywhere, but Josh Kraushaar at National Journal, took a stab at it… and I think some of his educated guesses are at least interesting.
For example:
The biggest problem with Huntsman’s campaign isn’t his centrist ideology; it’s his campaign’s tactics. Huntsman has decided to ignore the fundamental rule of politics—a campaign is about contrasting your record against those of your opponents. Instead of taking on President Obama, he’s praised Obama’s good intentions and avoided outlining many areas of disagreement. He’s run to the left of the president on Afghanistan, calling for faster and deeper troop withdrawals. And at a time when voters are hungry for solutions, he offered a platitude-filled kickoff speech that barely touched on the economic problems that Americans want solved.
This is a Republican Party that wants head-on confrontation with Obama, but Huntsman is selling détente and civility. It’s an electorate that wants a candidate who identifies with the struggles that Americans are dealing with. Instead, his introductory campaign video focused on his love of motocross—an image of recreation at a time when the country is facing major economic pain. Huntsman is also courting independents in the New Hampshire primary, whom he assumes are in the mold of Michael Bloomberg but are as disaffected as any group out there. (In the latest July Granite State poll, 61 percent of independents said the nation was headed in the wrong direction, with a 47 percent plurality disapproving of Obama.)
Huntsman has a good story to tell. He governed Utah at a time of economic prosperity, lowered taxes, and opposed abortion rights. He was one of the first presidential candidates to come out squarely for Paul Ryan’s entitlement reforms—which have become close to conservative orthodoxy these days.
Anyone else venture to guess as to why he’s not gaining steam?
So far, the political analysis on Huntsman has shown a real lack of imagination and any “outside the box” thinking. He’s the only candidate that we haven’t seen side-by-side with other candidates on the debate stage. Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain and Palin have been regulars on Fox News for the last few years. And everyone knows Mitt Romney because he hasn’t stopped running since he lost the 2008 nomination to McCain. Soon you’ll have Perry entering on the far right. A Perry-Bachmann dust-up will suck up every bit of media attention. Huntsman’s people aren’t naive. They know this nomination fight is going to be a reality freak show: equal parts Survivor, American Idol and Jersey Shore. Why push your guy into the middle of that so soon? Why not hold your guy back for awhile? All the stuff that Kraushaar wishes Huntsman would do and say is still in his arsenal. Why expend it so early. My guess is that Huntsman’s people know he has one shot at this. They’re hoping for that moment, probably on a debate stage, when voters are completely disgusted with the nursery school that is Washington, and have grown bored with the god and guns show on the far right — when Huntsman opens his mouth and hopefully looks and sounds so different (and sane) compared to the other candidates on stage — that voters will let out a sigh of “oh, there’s the grown-up.”